The Department of Labor Statistics’ monthly Employment Report is perhaps the most followed and reported on piece of economic data. This report produces the official estimate of unemployment in the United States. A couple of years ago when we started providing updates on Jobs Day, the unemployment rate had implications on how the Federal Reserve would conduct monetary policy. As unemployment slowly fell the narrative was about the painfully slow pace of the economic recovery and when the Fed eventually ended QE, the concern in the market was if the economy was strong enough to stand on its own.
The growth in jobs since then has been extraordinary.
There’s simply no denying the acceleration in hiring since start of 2014. pic.twitter.com/6iHGwsoULg
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) February 6, 2015
Just an extraordinary rate of jobs growth. The recovery we’ve waited all these years for is finally here.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 6, 2015
It’s the employment report you didn’t even dare to dream about.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 6, 2015
How good was Nov on the job front? Very good. Best three-month streak in more than a decade. http://t.co/6P3IPHFwcG pic.twitter.com/j9CM4Dvl9G
— Neil King (@NKingofDC) February 6, 2015
Job creation over the past 12 months, as of January, ran at its fastest pace in 14.5 years http://t.co/tsidpglGXN pic.twitter.com/b7UMQP9YM3
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) February 6, 2015
2014 began the takeoff everyone was waiting for and that trend continued last month. January payrolls exceeded expectations with 257k new jobs and revisions to past months added 147k more than previously thought.
January payrolls +257k December revised from +252k to +329k November revised from +353k to $423k Extraordinary rate of employment growth.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 6, 2015
The unemployment rate stayed flat but for good reasons as more people joined the labor force and wage growth, which has been tepid at best even as job creation boomed, jumped 12 cents. Simply put, this is an excellent Jobs Report.
This might just be the most perfect payrolls report ever. Strong jobs growth, helpful revisions, useful real wage growth, restrained nominal
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 6, 2015
Markets reacted immediately, pricing in an earlier date for interest rate hikes as Treasuries were immediately rocked and the dollar spiked. Equity markets were up slightly following the news.
Dollar spikes after strong jobs report http://t.co/tvJqX1uPi3 pic.twitter.com/IrdCdTw8CJ
— Bloomberg Business (@business) February 6, 2015
Move in the dollar seems to suggest markets are pricing in a June rate hike after jobs report. Which isn’t nutty.
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) February 6, 2015